I’ll Take Some Jeers with Those Black Friday Cheers

While I may be a Contrarian on many points, I try to stay extremely upbeat when it comes to holiday forecast and sales results. But while everyone is cheering the Black Friday weekend results, I don’t like what I’m seeing. Here’s why.

1) Average spending is down. Clearly the consumer was extremely focused on what they were going to buy. I believe that is going to continue throughout the holiday and as a result we’re likely to see a hefty decrease in impulse purchases. Will we actually see less gift cards sold this year? I hope not but wouldn’t be surprised.

2) Number of people shopping on Black Friday, especially before 4:00 a.m. Are more consumers doing this for fun or because they feel they need to? Yes it is fun for some people, but I believe a lot more people want or need to stretch their holiday dollars this year. I still can’t think of anything worse than 4:00 a.m. shopping. Oh wait, midnight madness. That’s worse by four hours.

3) The 10% increase in the number of consumers who shopped in a discount store this year compared to last. This one really worries me. Yes it’s good for Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and other big box discounters. But I’m worried that this could be at the expense of the regional and local independents. I spoke with a lot of retailers today and almost across the board the independents had a disappointing weekend.

I am really concerned about the regional and independent retailers this year. They have no room for error. The good old days of opening the door during the holidays and making easy sales are gone. Giving “service” won’t be enough. They absolutely must nail every customer opportunity by delivering a great experience that results in a sale.

Holiday 2007 is either sell it cheap or sell it better. There’s nothing in-between.